International Oil Prices Experience Minor Decline

As of the close on August 29, 2025:

The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (WTI) fell by 0.91%, settling at $64.01 per barrel.

London Brent crude futures declined by 0.73%, closing at $68.12 per barrel.

However, from a weekly perspective, international oil prices actually recorded a modest overall increase, with WTI and Brent crude posting cumulative gains of 0.55% and 0.57% for the week, respectively. Market analysis suggests that international oil prices remain in a general downward trend, facing certain technical resistance. For instance, WTI’s 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $65.64 serves as a key resistance level, indicating that short-term trends may remain under pressure.

Domestic Oil Prices Expected to Potentially Increase

In contrast to the recent slight decline in international oil prices, domestic refined oil product prices face a possibility of an increase in the next adjustment window (24:00 on September 9, 2025). Current monitoring data show a crude oil change rate of 0.35%, with an expected increase of 35 yuan per ton, already very close to the 50 yuan per ton red line for a price hike. If international oil prices continue to rise in the future, pushing the domestic adjustment beyond the red line, the likelihood of an increase becomes greater.

Nigerian Oil Pipeline Shut Down for Maintenance

Nigeria, an African oil-producing country, has an important oil transportation route—the Trans Niger Pipeline. Its operator announced on August 30 the start of a ten-day shutdown maintenance plan. This measure is intended to ensure the long-term operational safety of the pipeline. During the maintenance period, oil supply and exports related to this pipeline may be somewhat affected.

Kazakhstan Oil Transport Normal and CNPC’s Technical Progress

On the other hand, the Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy stated that the transportation of Kazakh oil via the CPC pipeline is currently proceeding normally and as planned. This helps maintain the stability of market supply.

In terms of oil technology, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has disclosed an international patent application titled "A Fracturing Method, Device, Equipment, and Storage Medium for Horizontal Wells." Since the beginning of this year, CNPC has seen a significant increase in the number of international patent applications published, with a year-on-year growth of 65.17%. This reflects the company’s continuous investment in oil and gas field development technology R&D, with R&D expenditure reaching 9.899 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.51%.

Overall Perspective

The current oil market presents a mixed outlook of bullish and bearish factors:

International oil prices have experienced a technical decline in the short term, yet weekly figures still show a slight increase, indicating market volatility and uncertainty.

In terms of geopolitical supply, there are expectations of potential supply tightening due to the Nigerian pipeline maintenance, alongside stabilizing factors from normal transportation in Kazakhstan.

Domestic refined oil product prices face a possible increase in the next adjustment, necessitating close attention to subsequent international oil price trends.

Industry technology continues to advance in response to extraction challenges.